Interview with George Gallup

MJ: Mr. George Gallup thanks for joining us today.

GG: Pleasure indeed.

MJ: Would you please tell us a little bit about your organization?

GG: Happily. We... the organization started in 1935 by my dad and actually his experience goes back to the '20's. He did some interviewing on his... for his PhD, Doctorate in the University of Iowa on the readership of advertising. Then he did some polling for my grandmother who ran as secretary of state in Iowa in 1932. She ran as a woman and as a Democrat and you know, incredibly, she won. I mean, the odds were really against her in Iowa in those days, but my dad did a poll on her race and the results were only one percentage point off what she actually got And he had a keen interest in journalism, too, and was the head of the Medell school of journalism at Northwestern and so all these forces came together if you will and resulted of starting the Gallup Poll in 1935, feeling that it would be a wonderful dimension to journalism and a new kind of history if you will, the history of what people think as well as what they do. We've grown over the years, rapidly, and we are... now exist in 60 nations of the world, most recently China, so we are very excited about that and also, of course, we've had an affiliate in Japan for many many years and we're able to cover 90 percent of the surveyable world now at the present time. And the day of instant global surveys is not that far off.

MJ: How has polling changed over the years?

GG: Well, it's... it's certainly expanded around the world. That's one of the ways. It... the new technology has helped us analyze the data more quickly, but not an awful lot's happened with... in sampling. We really have gone about as far as we can go in terms of developing sampling frames. Interviewing techniques have changed to some degree. We do a lot of...more work by telephone surveys than we do in person. In the beginning, surveys were all in person and now they're by telephone so that's been a major change actually. And...there've been new questionnaire techniques develop, but really not much has changed a lot scientifically in the last few decades, but the spread of polling and the way the information is processed has certainly changed a lot.

MJ: There was a very famous American presidential race in 1948 when President Truman...

GG: I don't remember that.

MJ: President Truman lost, I mean actually won the election, but he was down. Was that your father's firm that did that poll?

GG: Yes.

MJ: And how has it changed since then?

GG: Well, we... we all came acropper that year. All the major polls were

off the mark basically because they stopped polling too soon. It wasn't a

failure of the method, really. It was basically just that we didn't catch

the last minute shift of support to Truman, and typically in... when you

have third and fourth party candidates that support collapses in the

closing days of the campaign with that vote going back to the major party

candidates. That's exactly what happened in 1948, but we stopped a few

weeks too early, didn't catch that drop in support and we were off the mark

indeed. I mean, there were other reasons, but they were more minor...

allocation of the undecided and so forth. So we didn't have to do a

wholesale revision of our methods. We did move over a period of years from

the quota sampling which is telling interviewers to go out and get xx

percent of people in various occupation groups xx men and women and so

forth, leaving the choice in the hands of the interviewer. We did move

from that to setting up ahead of time the places that... to which they were

to go and the people whom they were to interview.

MJ: One of the chief complaints we hear from the average American is, "I

never... I'm never called for those polls." What about someone like myself

who has an answering machine? Do pollsters leave messages for people with

answering machines or do they... are they not in samples or how does that

work?

GG: Well, in some cases they do and some cases they don't. Some cases

have said, "Well, I'll be calling back shortly," and so forth. Interviewing

is so important and we pride ourselves on having a very good interviewing

staff. I mean out of every 100 people who apply to be an interviewer, we

take only 16. We put them through very careful tests. Which means that I

think we have one of the best response rates in the world, or at least in

this country and we keep these people on. They stay on because it's really

sort of a sixth sense to be a good interviewer.

MJ: You've been part of this organization for a number of years. How have

the views of Americans changed over the years and maybe stayed the same?

GG: Well, in some ways they've been remarkably the same. I mean, we still

have a high level of religious involvement and religious belief in this

country. That hasn't really changed much over the last, now 62 years. In

other ways there have been dramatic changes, actually. The... the sexual

revolution has really changed attitudes enormously. The cost of living and

the concern over that has grown, certainly. Lifestyles have changed

enormously. In terms of... in some ways it's been remarkably the same, as

I mentioned, the percentage of people who would call themselves liberals or

conservatives has really basically stayed the same, and the best way to

judge that is to look at how people divide on certain issues that usually

divide liberals and conservatives... gun control, prayer in schools,

abortion and so forth. Attitudes really, over the last 30 years have not

changed much on those particular issues and so really the split has been,

oh you know, almost 50/50. I mean, slightly more to the conservative side

in recent years but I think commentators tend to exaggerate that. They see

a particular candidate win... winning and say, "oh, the country is going

this way..." It's not necessarily the case.

MJ: How have... how has the political life and the political structure

changed over those years and the attitudes towards it?

GG: Well, attitudes have become more negative than before and that's

reflected in the vote. In fact I don't think they'll really change until a

lot of the long sought electoral reforms are brought about in this

country, tighter limits on campaign spending, maybe putting limits on the

terms of office of candidates... shortening the campaign and on and on and

on... The public would really, completely revamp the electoral process. I

think their discouragement with the electoral process is reflected in the

declining number of people who vote in elections. It doesn't mean that

necessarily they're apathetic because we see Americans volunteering as much

as ever just about.

MJ: Is there a sense of a disconnect between maybe the thinkers and the...

writers and the... so forth, in the culture, the political elite and the

average working man or woman?

GG: Yeah. I would... I would say there is to a considerable extent. I

mean, the average person's stock of knowledge is not too good, too

impressive, but the common sense quotient is high. To quote

somebody....this is somebody else who made the observation, but we would

certainly underscore it from our surveys that people are appallingly

ignorant in terms of the Bible, for example, in terms of geography and

science, in terms of current events and so forth. They're really, you

know, just amazing areas of ignorance and yet the common sense of the

public comes through again and again. It's... well for example the public

is usually far ahead of their legislative leaders in support for certain

programs...

MJ: How much of a disconnect is there between the sort of elite class of

Americans and the average common man or woman on the street?

GG: Well, I would have to say, it's really quite pronounced, really. I

mean, the... the average person really is not too aware of basic facts in

certain areas... I mean geography and science and certainly the Bible,

but... so there is that gap indeed, but we've found over the years that the

common sense quotient of the American people is extremely high... and I

think one evidence of that is... is looking at their being ahead of their

elected leaders in many different areas. We have seen that over the years.

MJ: What... as you look to the present views of people, you also look to

the future. What do you see changing in terms of maybe public opinions of

American people in the years ahead?

GG: Well I... my short term outlook is quite bleak. I mean, we... we

have some... some very severe trends in this country, very worrisome...

alcohol abuse... A fifth of all people say drinking's a problem in their

homes. The divorce rate is exceedingly high in this country... six in ten

new marriages will break up spreading dysfunction throughout society. We

see child abuse and sex... sexual abuse very, very high in this country...

much higher, we find in surveys than generally reported and so.... in

violence in certain areas is very bad and with the coming younger

population of younger teens and preteens, the situation is going to get a

lot worse, too in the immediate years ahead. Having said that, I should

readily say that most families are happy, are satisfied with their family

life in this country. Most feel that they have control over their lives.

Most say that their health is good, if not excellent. So, I mean, there

are many many positive things and Americans are not despondent by any

means. They may be apprehensive, but they're not despondent. So, what it

means is that we... we have a lot to protect, but there are an awful

threats particularly facing young people today.

MJ: For a lot of us, even in the U.S. our views of America come through

television, movies, music, newspapers, magazines... as a person who's

really in touch with what Americans are thinking, how different is our

public perception of America from the actual people who live here?

MJ: As a person who's really in touch with the views of most

Americans.....

MJ: Most of us see America by.... via television, radio, movies, films,

magazines, so forth... How different is America from what we perceive it to

be, or how different are Americans from what we see in the media?

GG: I... I think a lot different, really, and... and the public feels,

too, when we ask them, they feel that television and Hollywood distort the

picture of America and make it seem much more violent than it actually is.

And the concentration on... on negative events which to, I guess to some

degree is inevitable because it's more newsy. It is... it distorts the

picture, too, I think.

MJ: Can you tell us a bit about your... your life, your father and when

you took over the company and how the companies are configured now?

GG: Well, I've spent 46 years with the Gallup Poll. I've... at one point

I would... wanted to be a minister in a black church in Texas and decided

that this field is a form of ministry to try to find out how people respond

to God to the extent we can and... so, but I was very involved with day to

day activities with the Gallup Poll for three or four decades and wrote the

reports and worked on the questionnaires and so forth, but it was... It was

great fun, I loved it, and still am involved, but on a periphery basis.

My... my real passion, though, is digging beneath the surface of life

and... and looking at underlying values, spirituality, the levels of

religious belief and so forth and so I think the discoveries ahead are

going to be in the inner life. I think that's the new frontier of survey

research will be the inner life.

MJ: What do you mean by the inner life?

GG: Well, looking at religious experiences, looking at the power of

prayer, looking at the quality of saintliness and that sort of thing. This

century was devoted really to looking at... exploring outer space and I

think the next century will be exploring inner space. I think the new

discoveries will be in that area, really. So, that excites me very much,

and that's a little bit about what we were talking about today as a matter

of fact.

MJ: Can you talk about some of the books that you've written, especially

your most recent book?

GG: Well, the most recent book was, "Scared Growing Up in America,"

published by Moorehouse, and that was an attempt to put down data from

youth themselves on the various risks that they face. And then we went to

15 experts in the area of alcohol abuse, suicide, eating habits, values and

so forth, and had them respond to this information on risks and then advise

the parents on steps that might be taken to help young people avoid these

risks. So, we... we attempted to write a very user-friendly book that

could be picked up by people who don't read a great deal or a lot of books

and to make, you know, very practical information. Much of it is in the

form of reminders in each of these areas and we covered seven areas:

suicide, smoking, eating, drinking, values and so forth, and in this book

we have a list of resources and hotdlines and we also have a quiz to see

how good people are as parents. So, that's the very latest book. The one

before that was called, "The Saints Among Us," and we were endeavoring to

put calipers on persons with a deep spiritual commitment to see how they

differ from the rest of the population.

MJ: How do they differ?

GG: Well, if they fall on one side of the scale in all twelve items that

we were using in this test, we find that they are far more charitable than

persons with less religious commitment; they are more ethical; they're more

tolerant despite the prevailing wisdom that the deeper you go into your

faith the more bigoted or closed-minded you become, the situation's just

the opposite the survey shows. These people are more giving, they're more

forgiving; they're more concerned about the betterment of society and

having strong families, and... we focused on Christians because most people

in this country would call themselves Christians, but I'm sure it would cut

across all faiths and, but particularly, it would apply to deep faith.

Well, one of the interesting things for me was that I was reminded of

people in this little church I worked in in Galveston, Texas, these older

black women who were selfless, you know, and yet they had joy in their

life. They might not have been totally happy but they had joy, a sense of

accomplishment, hope for the future and deep faith in God and so I sort of

saw them in this book, really, because that was the prototype of a saint

would be an older black woman.

MJ: What surprises you as you poll the American people.

GG: Well, one, I'm always surprised at the... the levels of ignorance,

really. I mean, there are 24 million Americans that can't locate the

United States on a map of the world, and there are many young people who

have no idea when the Civil War was fought. I mean, it's just, some of the

results are appalling. So, I've never failed to be appalled, frankly,

sometimes at the... at the lack of knowledge in certain areas, but I never

fail to be impressed, really, with the, what I think is the... is the

rightness of a lot of the decisions. I mean, when people really think

about an issue, and we... we've tested this, in that, given... when you

give people the same amount of information regardless of the level of

formal education, they tend to zero in on the same response. So, that

gives me encouragement that when people have all the information they

make... they make good decisions.

MJ: On the political culture of... of the United States you say it hasn't

shifted much over the years. Has it gone up and down and then back where

it was at, or is it... generally been consistent as you described it.

GG: I think basically ... talking about the last three decades or more

that the balance of liberals and conservatives has not really changed that

much. Somewhat. It's been moving a little bit toward the conservative

side but not to the extent that people believe it is, and the way to judge

that I think is looking at how people vote on issues that typically divide

liberals and conservatives.

MJ: Do we have any indication of which presidents have been the most

popular in this century?

GG: Oh yes, we... we've carried popularity measurements since the late

'30's and that's probably the question that we ask most often, so we have

masses of information on that. We... every... every week or two we're

polling on the president's popularity and the... overall the average most

popular presidents were during the time... FDR had a high rating, LBJ, in

the three years he was in office, and... but there were the all-time low

points came with Truman at one point, and with Nixon at one point and LBJ

just before he decided to bow out of the race in 1968, I believe it was.

MJ: Historically looking back do you do polls today of which presidents do

you most admire?

GG: Yeah, yeah.

MJ: Who comes out where on that?

GG: Kennedy would come out ahead on the poll, and FDR comes out pretty

well, but Kennedy wins those contests.

MJ: Is that do to the circumstances of his death or was he popular at the

time as well?

GG: He was quite popular at the time, but the circumstances of his death,

I'm sure have sustained that high level of popularity.

MJ: When do you begin to poll for the next presidential campaign?

GG: We'll be starting actually, probably very soon now. I mean next, I

think next January we'll start to develop what we call trial heats which we

invented.

MJ: That's three years ahead of the... ahead of the election, roughly.

GG: We may do an occasional survey at that point then we'll start much

more in earnest two years before and so test elections, trial heats and so

forth. It never ends.

MJ: How do you see the next race shaping up, in the year 2000?

GG: Well, certainly one of the most popular candidates of all is Colin

Powell and I don't know if there will be tremendous pressure on him to...

to run. Of course there's a lot of talk about Al Gore, too, Vice President

Al Gore. So... at this point it looks as if they might be in the race but

we haven't done any polling on it yet, so I'm just guessing.

MJ: Now you talked a bit earlier about the Gallup Organization and the

Gallup Polling Company is it? Can you tell us about that differentiation?

GG: The Gallup Poll is within Gallup Organization you know. The third

organization is the Gallup Institute which is a non-profit public charity.

The purpose of that is to take survey information in the area of the

environment, health, education, religion and values, and take it to the

next step to use that information to promote positive change in society,

make sure the information gets to people who can make a difference with it.

MJ: You seem to have the unique ability to not only poll and take a pulse

of the culture, but also to be influencing it. How do you balance off

those two roles you seem to have?

GG: We feel that we're reporters and that our job is just to...as accurate

as we possibly can... is to present information, and it's really out of our

bailywhick once we've reported it really. We don't know, we hope that it

informs the public. We hope it energizes them in... in a positive way and

elevates society. We hope for all of those things and we make a point

through the institute to get the information to those people in groups that

can bring about positive change, but it really... we can't do anything

about how people... what they do with the information, but think every....

everything else being considered is better that people having information

than that they don't have it.

MJ: The name George Gallup is one the best known names here in the U.S..

Everybody knows Gallup. What was it like growing up as George Gallup

Junior?

MJ: Well, when I was a youngster I didn't really, you know... I didn't

really think much about it. It's as I get older, in a funny way that I...

that I realize that in a funny way it's sort of fun, in a way, you know, I

guess to be identified but by the same token it's sort of a burden, too. I

mean subconsciously I think I was always trying to beat my father and I

realize that you know, we're all given different gifts from God and you...

you go with...soar with your strengths whatever they are, you know, and

don't worry about the things you can't do well.

MJ: Will any of your children be working with the company or taking over

someday?

GG: I have one... my son is working in religion research with me so I

don't know where that's going to head actually.

MJ: Is he a George Gallup Junior as well?

GG: Well he's the fourth.

MJ: The fourth?

GG: There are a whole bunch of us, yeah. My grandfather was George H.

Gallup.

MJ: You do a lot of speaking these days, in fact, you're speaking at a

conference today... this week, talk a bit about that and what that's

about.

GG: Well, this is on spirituality and health, looking at the relationship

of spirituality to physically healings, and well, emotional and

psychological as well and a tremendously fast growing amount of evidence to

indicate that there is... the faith factor is very powerful in healing and

recovery from illnesses and so forth. I think that's one of the things

that... that society is very slow in coming to a recognition at least the

elites, if you will, that the faith factor is probably the most powerful

dynamic in American life. It has much more to do with who we are and what

we say in society than do... than does politics or education or where we

live, really. The intensity of our religious faith really, is a... is a

very decisive factor in so much in our life. The people who have a deep

faith are less prone to crime, criminal activity, they're happier, they

have less stress, they're not as depressed as often, they do better in

school, they're more hopeful about the future, they have healthier lives

and they have longer lives. So what was said in Proverbs is true today

really, that God is good.

GG: Yeah, and I do a lot of speaking in this country and also other parts

of the world and I not long ago I spoke to the Japan-American Society in

Tokyo and this came about because of my very good friendship with... and it

goes back 50 years when we were schoolboys together with Nori Kabiyama

whose... whose father, I should say, his grandfather was Count Kabiyama who

did much to introduce Japan to the industrial age so that was one of the

happy occasions when I've spoken outside the country.

MJ: How is polling in Japan, have you kept up with that at all?

GG: Yes. It's... it's taken hold in a tremendous way and it did very

early on. The Japanese are very good in polling techniques and so it's

very widespread in that country.

MJ: Tell us a bit about your life back home in New Jersey.

GG: Well, let's see, my interests and that sort of thing? Well, I play a

very bad trumpet. I play a lot, just... just hacking around, but I've done

a lot of singing in Gilbert and Sullivan for various companies. I sing

bass baritone roles, some with the Philadelphia Savoy Company and so forth.

I like to play tennis. I love soccer. When I was younger I was a coach

and a player. I live on a farm and get a great charge out of that.

MJ: You're also involved in opera, quite a bit?

GG: Well, operettas, Gilbert and Sullivan operettas.

MJ: Any projects and future, goals and projects that you have in mind

that you can share with us?

GG: Yes. The ones that excite me most, I guess rather predictably, are

those that are exploring the inner life, and we are doing a study right now

on persons who are dying and... and how their beliefs about what happens

after death give them solace or don't give them solace and how caregivers

can, with this information, pray with people and... and help them in these

final days. So, I'm very excited about that prospect. Another area we

want to explore in great depth is the whole area of physical healing. What

is it doing in people's lives, what is the need for it that people see and

are the clergy responding to this, too.

MJ: How does the view of afterlife affect people who are dying?

GG: Well, we haven't done the survey yet.

MJ: That's coming.

GG: It's coming, yeah. And we're developing a scale to measure how

people's love of God relates to love of man, the vertical and the

horizontal and I'm excited about that. We're still in the rudimentary

stages of that.

MJ: In what ways do you think polling in general will change in the

future?

GG: I think polling will be much more widespread than it is now believe it

or not, as widespread as it is. I think many, many communities will

realize the utility of surveys, that it's a... they are a fast, efficient,

an inexpensive way to get good, accurate information so I think we'll see a

lot more expansion locally. We'll see it more around the world, too.

There'll be more international surveys. Global opinion will become common

place, you know, maybe with... with a television show within an hour

collecting global opinion on a particular issue. Technically, we can do

that now... in terms of technology...

MJ: And how has polling changed politics and how would it change it in the

future would yo

u see?

GG: Well, I think the... the good outweighs the bad because I think

leaders are to lead and not follow public opinion and so there are many,

there are some violations of course, indeed, but a good leader will listen

to public opinion and serve the public and follow it if they think in good

conscience this is what they should do, so I think the good far outweighs

the bad, in terms of enlightening leaders and in terms of... giving the

public a vote, really because in a democracy this is a goal, is to give

people a chance to speak their mind at all times.

MJ: President Clinton is often accused of being excessively poll conscious

and poll-driven. How would you like to see polling used, as you said,

properly? What would be the proper use of it on a given issue, for

instance?

GG: Well, I think it be... behooves a leader to know all they can about

where people stand on a given issue, the reasons they hold these opinions,

what they know about it, the level of education and awareness, that's

vital. But then, they should exercise their own judgment and not put their

conscience aside just to get votes and so forth, but I think, I think a

leader would be foolish not to pay public... attention to public opinion,

but they would be, certainly wrong if they let that lead them instead of

their leading public opinion.

MJ: Would you like to see a political leader change his position on a

issue on the basis of a poll?

GG: I wouldn't mind one bit if they felt in good conscience that that's

what they should do.

MJ: Any... more books that we can expect from you in the future?

GG: Well, I'm sort of interested in a book called... that might, with the

title of maybe, "24 Hours in the Spiritual Life of America," which would be

based on simply maybe 200 interviews, really. I mean, you can get an awful

lot of good information, and really projectible. People are used to big,

fairly big samples like 1,000, although many think that wouldn't be very

big, 1,000, or 2,000, 3,000. But, you can get a lot of good projectible

information with 100 cases, 200 cases actually, so I.. I've just been

toying with that idea, actually.

MJ: Thanks so much for joining us today.

GG: You're welcome. It's a real pleasure.